They Asked 422 Burglars What Made Them Walk Away. The Locks Did Not Come First.

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Almost everything written about home security is written by people selling home security. There is one substantial exception, and it is unusual enough to be worth building an article around: in a study run through the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, researchers put a questionnaire to 422 incarcerated burglars across three states and asked them how they actually chose houses, how they got in, and what made them walk away.

Two findings from it reorganise the standard advice. The first is that 62% described their burglaries as spur of the moment rather than planned — which means most of the time you are not being targeted, you are being noticed. The second is the deterrent ranking, and it does not put hardware at the top.

Here is what they said, what it implies about where money is worth spending, and which of the standard recommendations the evidence does not support.

What actually makes them leave

Deterrents, ranked by the people being deterred

422 incarcerated burglars, three states, self-administered questionnaire.

1. SOMEONE IS HOMEOccupancy was the strongest deterrent in the survey. Not the strongest lock — the strongest signal that the house is not empty.

2. POLICE NEARBYProximity to a police presence, or the likelihood of a fast response. Not something you buy, but something that varies by street.

3. A DOGA real dog, visible or audible, ranked above alarms. Note the word real — a sign is not a dog.

4. AN ALARM SYSTEMEffective, and fourth. It works mainly by making the house a worse option than the next one.

5. OUTDOOR CAMERASVisible surveillance equipment. Ranked, but below the human and animal signals above it.

NOT RANKED HIGHLYFewer than a third said lighting, neighbourhood watch signs or a full mailbox factored into their decision — three of the most commonly repeated pieces of advice.

Source: Blevins, K.R. & Kuhns, J.B., Understanding Decisions to Burglarize from the Offender’s Perspective, University of North Carolina at Charlotte Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology, sponsored by the Alarm Industry Research and Educational Foundation.

One caveat worth stating plainly, because this site would rather you knew: the study was funded by the alarm industry’s research foundation. That is a real conflict of interest and it is exactly the kind of thing that should make you read the results carefully. What makes it more credible rather than less is that the funded product finished fourth, behind two things nobody sells, and that lighting — another commercial category — performed poorly. A survey designed to flatter its sponsor would have looked different.

They are not picking your lock

The second surprise is in the entry method, and it explains why a lot of money gets spent on the wrong component.

How they got in

Reported entry methods.

Open or forced doors and windowsPicked locks or obtained keys

the great majority — open or forced

12%

Source: Blevins & Kuhns, UNC Charlotte burglar survey.

If almost nobody picks locks, then upgrading to a pick-resistant cylinder is solving the rarest version of the problem. What gets forced is not the lock but the frame — a standard exterior door is usually held by a strike plate fixed with short screws into soft trim, and a single kick transfers the load straight into that wood. Long screws driven through the frame into the structural stud behind it cost a few dollars and change the failure mode entirely.

What the alarm actually does

Alarms came fourth, and the detail underneath the ranking is more useful than the position.

The alarm is checked before, and it works before

Reported behaviour around alarm systems.

Tried to determine whether an alarm was present before attempting83%

Would seek a different target if an alarm was present60%

Would stop if they discovered an alarm after startingabout half

Would always continue anyway13%

Source: Blevins & Kuhns, UNC Charlotte burglar survey.

Occupancy is something you can manufacture

If the strongest deterrent in the study is somebody being home, and you cannot be home, then the practical question becomes how convincingly a house can look occupied. This is the cheapest part of the whole subject and the part most people do badly, because the signals that give an empty house away are mostly signals of routine interrupted.

What broadcasts that a house is empty

Each of these is a visible change from the normal pattern of the street.

THE SAME LIGHT, EVERY NIGHTA single lamp on a cheap timer switching at exactly 7pm reads as absence, not presence. Varied timing across two or three rooms reads as a household.

PARCELS ON THE STEPAn uncollected delivery is the clearest possible statement that nobody has opened the door today.

BINS OUT ON THE WRONG DAYOr never taken in. In a street where everyone else moves theirs, yours not moving is conspicuous.

THE HOLIDAY POSTAnnouncing a trip publicly, in real time, to an audience you do not control. Post the photographs when you are home.

AN EMPTY DRIVEA car that has not moved in a week says one thing. A drive that is never used says another. Neighbours parking in it is a genuine measure.

CURTAINS FROZENClosed at midday, or open at midnight. Either is a house nobody is adjusting.

Source: deterrent ranking from Blevins & Kuhns, UNC Charlotte burglar survey; occupancy cues as applied practice.

What actually helps, in order

Ranked against what the burglars said

The first four are free.

1. LOCK WHAT IS ALREADY THEREThe most common entry is through something open. Back doors, ground-floor windows, the side gate, the garage door, the window left on the latch for the cat. This is the largest single reduction available and it costs nothing.

2. LOOK OCCUPIEDVaried lighting, someone collecting parcels and moving bins, a car in the drive, no live holiday broadcast. Occupancy is the top-ranked deterrent and it is free to imitate.

3. KNOW ONE NEIGHBOURSomebody who will notice a van and take in a parcel is worth more than most equipment, and it is the mechanism behind why proximity to a fast response ranked second.

4. CLEAR THE COVEROvergrown shrubs beside a front window let someone work unobserved. This is the useful half of the standard advice about the garden.

5. FIX THE DOOR FRAMELong screws through the strike plate and hinges into the stud behind. A few dollars, twenty minutes, and it addresses the actual failure mode instead of the imagined one.

6. MAKE THE ALARM VISIBLEIf you have one, the sign and the sensors should be seen from the street. It works before entry, not during.

7. PUT A CAMERA WHERE IT IS OBVIOUSVisible surveillance ranked as a deterrent. A hidden camera collects evidence; a visible one prevents the event.

8. PHOTOGRAPH AND RECORD WHAT YOU OWNSerial numbers and photographs of the few valuable items. This does nothing to prevent a burglary and a great deal for the insurance claim afterwards.

Source: deterrent and entry-method findings, Blevins & Kuhns, UNC Charlotte burglar survey.

The hardware worth buying (paid link)

Chosen to match the ranking above rather than the marketing.

DOOR REINFORCEMENT KITLong screws and a heavy strike plate that transfer force into the framing stud rather than the trim. The cheapest item here and the one that addresses how doors actually fail.
Browse on Amazon →

SMART PLUGS ON VARIED SCHEDULESTwo or three lamps in different rooms, switching at times that differ night to night. This is the practical way to buy the top-ranked deterrent.
Browse on Amazon →

A VISIBLE CAMERA OR DOORBELLMounted where it is seen from the approach, not hidden. Check what happens to the footage and who can access it before you buy.
Browse on Amazon →

WINDOW AND SLIDING DOOR LOCKSSecondary locks and bars for ground-floor windows and patio doors, which are the classic forced entry points.
Browse on Amazon →

Three things we are deliberately not linking. Dummy cameras and fake alarm boxes. They are aimed at people who look, and the survey says 83% of burglars look. A dummy is identifiable at close range by exactly the person you are trying to fool, and it produces no footage when it fails. “Beware of dog” signs without a dog. A real dog ranked third; a sign is not evidence of one, and the same survey found signage in general — including neighbourhood watch signs — ranked low. High-security lock cylinders as a first purchase. They are good products solving a problem that accounted for about 12% of entries. If your door frame is held by half-inch screws, spend the money there first. Also worth saying: a camera is a privacy decision as well as a security one, since it records your neighbours and visitors and sends that footage somewhere — a point we made at more length in our piece on what your devices give away.

Questions people ask

Do burglars really work at night?

Less than the films suggest. The survey found no strong overall preference between day and night, with some variation by offender. That matters because it undercuts the whole model of night-time security — the empty house in the middle of a weekday is a perfectly good target, and it is the one most households leave unattended most reliably.

Am I being watched and chosen?

Usually not. Just over a third gathered advance information, and 62% described the burglary as spur of the moment. The realistic model is opportunity rather than surveillance: someone is passing, something about the house says nobody is in and nothing will react, and the decision takes seconds. That is genuinely reassuring, and it is also why the cheap signals work.

Is a monitored alarm worth the monthly fee?

It depends on what you are buying it for. As a deterrent, most of the effect comes from being visibly alarmed, which a self-monitored system delivers as well. As a response, monitoring buys someone else noticing when you are away and cannot. Decide which of the two you actually want before comparing prices, because the marketing blends them.

What about a dog?

A dog ranked third, above alarms and cameras, and the mechanism is noise and unpredictability rather than size. It is also, obviously, a fifteen-year commitment to a living animal and a terrible reason to acquire one. If you already have a dog, it is doing more security work than your lock; if you do not, this is not the argument for getting one.

Should I confront someone if it happens?

No. Everything in this article is designed to make the house a worse option before anyone is inside it, precisely so that this question stays hypothetical. If someone is in the house, the property is insured and you are not. Get out or stay put somewhere secure, and call the police.

The short version

• 422 incarcerated burglars were asked directly. 62% called it spur of the moment.
• The top deterrents were occupancy, police proximity and a dog — ahead of alarms and cameras.
• Fewer than a third rated lighting, watch signs or a full mailbox as a factor.
• Only about 12% picked a lock or used a key. Nearly everyone else went through something open or forced.
• So the weak point is the door frame, not the cylinder. Long screws into the stud.
• 83% checked for an alarm before attempting, and 60% would go elsewhere if they found one.
• Once inside, only about half would stop. The alarm works before, so make it visible.
• Occupancy can be manufactured — varied lights, collected parcels, moved bins, no live holiday posts.
• Skip the dummy camera and the dog sign. The people they are aimed at are the people who look closely.
• The study was funded by the alarm industry. Its own product came fourth, which is the main reason to trust it.

This article summarises one offender survey and general crime prevention practice. Burglary patterns vary a great deal by country and neighbourhood, and your local police force usually publishes area-specific advice that reflects what is actually happening near you. Nothing here is advice about confronting an intruder, and the law on defending property differs sharply between jurisdictions.

On the links above: some are affiliate links, marked (paid link). If you buy through one we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. We link to product searches rather than specific items so that recommendations do not break as models change, and we say plainly when we are choosing not to link something. Full policy: Affiliate Disclosure.

Sources

• Blevins, K.R. & Kuhns, J.B. Understanding Decisions to Burglarize from the Offender’s Perspective. University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology; sponsored by the Alarm Industry Research and Educational Foundation. (422 incarcerated burglars across three states; 62% spur of the moment; deterrent ranking; 83% checked for an alarm; 60% would seek another target; about half would stop mid-attempt and 13% would always continue; about 12% picked locks or used keys; about 20% cut alarm or telephone wires; fewer than one third rated lighting, neighbourhood watch signs or a full mailbox.)
• University of North Carolina at Charlotte. “Through the eyes of a burglar: study provides insights on habits and motivations, importance of security,” 2013.