Brazil Chronic Disease Trends: Fewer Smokers, More Diabetes

The entrance of a public primary care clinic (Unidade Básica de Saúde) with SUS signage
File photo: a public primary care clinic (UBS) of the Unified Health System (SUS), where most blood pressure and diabetes care happens. Photo: Josscelio Ximenes via Wikimedia Commons, CC0.
Smoking down, obesity upUpdated 20 October 2026

Trend summary

  • Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) caused 53.9% of registered deaths in 2023, about 790,000 deaths. Some 323,000 of them (40.9%) were premature, at ages 30 to 69.
  • Heart and circulatory disease is the single biggest killer: about 400,000 deaths a year, roughly 30% of all deaths, according to the Ministry of Health’s library.
  • Risk factors are moving the wrong way. In state capitals, diagnosed diabetes rose from 5.5% to 12.9% of adults between 2006 and 2024, and obesity from 11.8% to 25.7%.
  • Smoking is the big success story, falling from 34.8% of adults in 1989 to 9.3% in 2023. But preliminary 2024 data point to a rise, and 29.6% of teenagers have now tried e-cigarettes.
53.9%Share of deaths from NCDs (2023)
781,000New cancer cases a year (2026–2028 estimate)
12.9%Adults with diagnosed diabetes, capitals (2024)
25.7%Adults with obesity, capitals (2024)

What the numbers show

NCDs are now the main cause of death in Brazil. The Ministry of Health’s latest Vigitel report says they accounted for 53.9% of all registered deaths in 2023, about 790,000 deaths, and that 40.9% of these happened before age 70 (Ministry of Health, Vigitel 2006–2024). The older 2011–2022 national plan put the share at 72%, with circulatory diseases alone at 31.3%; the plans use different groupings, so the two figures are not a like-for-like trend (Ministry of Health, 2011). Cardiovascular disease kills at least 400,000 Brazilians a year, about 30% of deaths (Ministry of Health library, 2022).

Cancer is the second big burden. INCA estimates 781,000 new cases a year for 2026–2028, or about 518,000 without non-melanoma skin cancer. Prostate (30.5% of men’s cases) and breast (30.0% of women’s) lead (INCA, 2026). The previous edition gave 704,000 a year for 2023–2025 (INCA, 2022), but INCA warns that editions should not be compared directly because methods change.

The Vigitel telephone survey of adults in the 27 capitals shows a steady rise in metabolic risk. From 2006 to 2024, diagnosed diabetes went from 5.5% to 12.9%, hypertension from 22.6% to 29.7%, obesity from 11.8% to 25.7% and overweight from 42.6% to 62.6% (Ministry of Health, 2026). The household-based national survey tells the same story: 25.9% of adults were obese in 2019, about 41.2 million people (IBGE, 2020).

Smoking has fallen a long way. The Senate’s archive puts adult prevalence at 34.8% in 1989 and 9.3% in 2023, with preliminary data showing 11.6% in 2024, the first rise in the series (Agência Senado, 2026). In IBGE’s national survey, tobacco use fell from 14.9% in 2013 to 12.8% in 2019 (IBGE, 2020). Smoking-related disease costs about R$153 billion a year, and a Ministry official cited around 40,000 COPD deaths, 30,000 cardiovascular deaths and 55,000 cancer deaths a year from tobacco (INCA, 2025).

What is driving it

Tobacco control is the clearest policy win. Lei 12.546/2011 banned smoking rooms in enclosed shared spaces, restricted point-of-sale advertising and enlarged health warnings; it took full effect in December 2014 (Agência Câmara, 2014). In 2024 the government raised the cigarette IPI rate from R$1.50 to R$2.25 per pack of 20 and the minimum price from R$5.00 to R$6.50, the first rise since 2016 (INCA, 2024). Anvisa kept and tightened its ban on e-cigarettes the same year (INCA, 2024). Even so, 29.6% of students aged 13 to 17 had tried e-cigarettes in 2024, up from 16.8% in 2019 (IBGE, 2026), and the industry is still fighting the 2012 ban on flavour additives in court (INCA, 2026).

Weight is the main force pushing diabetes and blood pressure up. Overweight among men rose from 18.5% in 1974–75 to 50.1% in 2008–09 (IBGE, 2010). The 2021–2030 plan aims to cut premature NCD deaths by a third from 2015, cut smoking by 40% and stop adult obesity rising (Ministry of Health, 2021). On treatment, the Farmácia Popular programme gave free medicines for hypertension, diabetes and asthma to about 9.8 million people a month through some 35,000 pharmacies, according to a 2018 Senate report (Agência Senado, 2018).

Recent cases

  • 28 May 2026: At its World No Tobacco Day event, INCA warned that the tobacco industry is using lawsuits to delay Anvisa’s 2012 ban on flavour and aroma additives. A study of Anvisa data found that about half of cigarette brands registered in 2025 already had none of the banned additives (INCA).
  • 25 March 2026: IBGE’s school health survey found that 29.6% of students aged 13 to 17 had tried e-cigarettes in 2024, up from 16.8% in 2019, while lifetime cigarette smoking fell from 22.6% to 18.5% (IBGE).
  • 4 February 2026: INCA released its new estimate of 781,000 new cancer cases a year for 2026–2028, about 518,000 excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (INCA).

Press releases and official reports, 2023–2026

Five key releases a year for the last four years, newest first. Most come from federal ministries and agencies such as the Ministry of Health, INPE, the Federal Highway Police, CENIPA and the Central Bank, from Agência Brasil, the public news agency, and from the Senate and Chamber news services and state governments; a few news reports are included where they are the clearest public record of an event. Headlines are our English translations of the Portuguese originals. Releases from 2007–2022 are in the expandable list after 2023.

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View 20 years of major Brazilian chronic disease press releases (2007–2026)63 more from 2007–2022, up to five a year, newest first

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Many years list fewer than five items, and some have none yet. Older federal releases and the 2007–2013 Agência Brasil archive are hard to reach at their original addresses, and we only list items we could open and check. We are still adding to these lists. Where a page shows no date, the date comes from the release address or the publisher’s own index.

Photo list

A group exercise session at a public Academia da Saúde in Olinda
File photo: a group exercise session at the opening of a public Academia da Saúde (health gym) in Olinda, Pernambuco, 2016. Photo: Weverton Mello/Prefeitura de Olinda via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
The InCor heart institute building at Hospital das Clínicas, São Paulo
File photo: the Heart Institute (InCor) of the Hospital das Clínicas in São Paulo. Heart and circulatory disease is Brazil’s biggest killer. Photo: Governo do Estado de São Paulo via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

Related on ROR Labs

How this page is built. Figures come from the official statistical releases linked above; where agencies publish provisional numbers we say so, because they are revised. Brazil’s national death data come from the Ministry of Health mortality system (SIM/DATASUS) and are usually final about two years later, and some topics, such as fires, have no single national count, so we say which year and source each figure covers. Money is given in reais (R$). Headlines and quotes are our translations from Portuguese. Photos are public-domain or Creative Commons images credited in each caption; file photos are illustrative and are not from the events described unless the caption says so. This page tracks trends and is not personal safety, medical, legal or financial advice.